Flavio Bolsonaro Edged Lula in Brazil's First Round, Sending a Tight Race to a 25 October Runoff

Speaking outside his home in Brasilia, Flavio Bolsonaro said: "Brazil wants change, that's the reading of what happened today. It's the end of the Workers' Party era." Lula, addressing supporters in Sao Paulo, answered in a different register. "Tomorrow we start a new campaign," he said. "I am very good in the knockout stage. We will see who has the best plan." He also warned voters of "an uncertainty with a biography of a dark past."

A right-wing lean beyond the top two

NPR reported that the candidates who finished third, fourth and fifth were all right-wing, which hands Bolsonaro a natural pool of voters to court over the next three weeks. Brazilians also chose governors and lawmakers on Sunday, and early results showed the right making significant gains in Congress, particularly in the Senate. That would give a President Bolsonaro a firmer base, and give a re-elected Lula a harder time.

Washington in the background

Donald Trump has not formally endorsed anyone, Reuters said, though he hosted Flavio Bolsonaro at the White House and praised him publicly. Lula has accused the United States of trying to meddle, which the State Department denies, and has campaigned on defending Brazilian sovereignty. Bolsonaro rallies, NPR observed, have featured American flags and an inflatable Trump. Reuters added that a Bolsonaro win would extend a run of victories for Trump-aligned candidates across Latin America, while a Lula win could keep trade and security tensions with Washington alive.

Voters, per NPR, rank security, corruption and the economy as their top concerns. Surveys quoted by Reuters show the two men roughly even for 25 October. After a muted first-round campaign in which both leading candidates skipped the major television debates, the next three weeks are likely to be louder.