Christmas 2026 Forecasts: US Sales Seen at $1.013 Trillion, Hiring Stays Cautious, UK Online Spend Hits a Record
Forecasters expect record holiday sales, but half the US growth is inflation, big retailers are slow to hire, and a UK survey warns shoppers are cutting Black Friday budgets by a third.
Wednesday, November 11, 2026/3 min read
Christmas shopping is already under way, and the forecasts agree on one thing: shoppers will spend more dollars and pounds, but a good share of that is price rises rather than more presents. The National Retail Federation expects US holiday sales to grow 4.2 percent to $1.013 trillion across November and December, with inflation accounting for about half of the growth, IBTimes reported in its summary of the forecast. Those are forecasts, not results.
Inflation is the live variable. Tuesday's October CPI report showed food prices up 0.5 percent on the month, according to CNBC, which is a reminder that the Christmas dinner is part of the story as well as the gifts.
How much will Americans spend this Christmas?
Three forecasters, three windows. The NRF covers November and December and excludes cars, petrol and restaurants. Deloitte, in its 10 September release, projects $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion for November through January, up 4.0 to 4.8 percent, with e-commerce between $316.1 billion and $318.9 billion. Adobe tracks online sales only: its 28 September forecast is $275.1 billion for 1 November to 31 December, up 6.7 percent.
Adobe expects Cyber Monday on 30 November to be the biggest day at $15.1 billion, with Black Friday at $12.9 billion, up 9.2 percent. It also expects clicks from AI chat and browser tools to US retail sites to rise 130 percent, and buy-now-pay-later to drive $21.3 billion of spending. Deloitte's Natalie Martini said shoppers are making deliberate choices, switching brands and retailers and using promotions.
Are retailers hiring for the holidays?
Less than the headline sales suggest. The NRF forecasts 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal retail hires against an estimated 356,000 last year. Challenger, Gray and Christmas projects 450,000 retail jobs added in the fourth quarter against 461,500 a year earlier, and its Andy Challenger said resilience "is not translating into large, early hiring commitments" from the biggest retailers.
The big logistics names are split. Amazon plans to recruit 300,000 seasonal workers, up from 250,000 in each of the previous three years, according to IBTimes. UPS said on 7 October, in a Reuters report, that it would hire 100,000 seasonal workers, fewer than the 125,000 it hired in 2024, after announcing in January that it would cut up to 30,000 operational jobs this year.
What about Christmas shopping in the UK?
Adobe's UK forecast, published by Retail Gazette on 5 November, puts online Christmas spending at a record 28.52 billion pounds, up 6.2 percent, with Black Friday at 1.24 billion pounds and Cyber Monday expected to pass 1 billion pounds for the first time. Adobe expects average online discounts of 12 percent in early November, rising to 18 percent before Black Friday and 25 percent over Cyber Weekend, and AI-platform traffic to retail sites up 214 percent in November and December.
Not every forecast is that upbeat. Omnisend projects total Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending down 32 percent to 9.9 billion pounds, with the average planned spend falling from 390 pounds to 267, according to Retail Gazette on 3 November. Omnisend's Marty Bauer said some households are shopping earlier to spread the cost. The two UK forecasts measure different things (online sales against a survey of shopper budgets), which helps explain the gap.
What to watch before Christmas
The next data points are the Black Friday weekend itself on 27 November, the shipping cut-offs that carriers publish for 24 December delivery, and the November retail sales numbers in December. Whether the forecasts hold depends on inflation and, for American shoppers, on whether a December Fed rate rise lands on household budgets just as the bills arrive.
Published in The Outspoken Digest
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