One Week Before the Midterms, 34 Million Have Already Voted and a Marist Poll Has Democrats Up 8

Tennessee's early turnout in the first eight days was 57 percent above 2022, though it still trails 2018, and unaffiliated voters cast 34 percent of North Carolina's ballots in the first five days. Michigan, where Donald Trump held a rally in Port Huron on Sunday, as we reported earlier this week, has already seen more than a million ballots cast.

What do the latest midterm polls say?

The PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, fielded on 19 and 20 October among 1,280 registered voters, gives Democrats 52 percent to Republicans' 44 percent among likely voters, an 8-point lead, PBS reported. Among registered voters, the Democratic lead was 10 points, down from 12 last month. The margin of error is 3.8 points for likely voters.

Donald Trump's job approval among likely voters was 40 percent, against 59 percent who disapprove. Asked about their vote, 44 percent said it was mostly against Trump, 21 percent said it was for him, and 35 percent said he was not much of a factor. Cost of living (34 percent) and preserving democracy (33 percent) were the top issues, with immigration at 12 percent.

Does early voting favour Democrats?

So far, yes, but the poll finding to watch is who has not voted. About one in five likely voters had already cast a ballot, and they favoured Democrats 68 to 31 percent. Those yet to vote were split 48 to 48. Enthusiasm also differs by age: voters under 45 favour Democrats by 22 points, but only 42 percent of them are very enthusiastic, against 68 percent of voters 45 and older.

That gap, between a banked Democratic advantage and an evenly divided remainder, is the story of the final week. Both parties will spend it chasing people who say they will vote on Election Day, 40 percent of the likely electorate, and the 39 percent of voters who told Marist nobody had contacted them at all.