Brent Climbs Back to $97 After Its Two-Month Low as Iran Reports Tanker Fires in Hormuz and Trump Weighs a Deal
Thursday's bounce recovered part of Wednesday's near 9 percent plunge, with the IRGC saying two tankers and a tugboat caught fire and UKMTO logging a projectile strike off Qatar.
Thursday, November 5, 2026/3 min read
Oil found a floor on Thursday. Brent crude, which had fallen to $93.63 in early Asian trading, its lowest in about two months, was up 2.47 percent at $96.96 a barrel by 7.11pm in the UAE, and West Texas Intermediate had gained 2 percent to $89.90, The National reported. Both benchmarks are still down about 14 percent on the week after Monday's plunge and Tuesday's rebound and then Wednesday's 8.7 percent fall, the sharpest of the war, which took Brent below $100 for the first time since early October.
The reason for the bounce was the reason the fall could not last: the Strait of Hormuz is still a war zone. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said two oil tankers and a tugboat caught fire in separate incidents on Thursday, one tanker after striking a mine on what it called an illegal passage south of the strait, a supertanker while leaving the eastern end, and the tug while helping with the second fire, Gulf News reported. The claims could not be independently verified.
What happened in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday?
Separately, the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre said a tanker was hit by two unidentified projectiles about 50 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal in Qatar, with the crew's condition and the damage unknown, according to CBS News's live coverage. On Wednesday the IRGC had said four non-compliant tankers struck mines south of the strait and were still burning. South Korea said it would send maritime patrol aircraft and an explosive ordnance disposal team to the area but would not send troops into the war.
Physical barrels remain tighter than paper ones. Abu Dhabi's Murban grade traded at $100.90 early on Thursday, roughly $7 above Brent. Gulf exports of crude, condensate and products averaged 17.1 million barrels a day in October, about three-quarters of pre-war levels, Vortexa data cited by Oilprice.com showed, and US distillate stocks are 13 percent below their five-year average.
Why did oil crash on Wednesday?
Because the midterms changed the odds on the war. Vice President JD Vance wrote on X that the war was the reason Republicans lost, and President Trump, who had told the Financial Times on election night that he had no immediate plans to strike Iran, told reporters early on Thursday that Vance's remark was largely true and that the war had pushed up petrol prices in the short term, while insisting he would do it again. Axios reported that Trump is torn between renewed strikes, a deal and continued economic pressure, with Vance leading the advisers urging an agreement and CIA director John Ratcliffe and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent favouring the naval blockade.
Qatari mediators are seeking US and Iranian backing for a draft agreement that could restart direct talks within days. Iran's demands have not moved: an end to the blockade, sanctions relief and the release of frozen funds before the strait reopens. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi spoke by phone with his Saudi and Qatari counterparts on Thursday, Tasnim reported.
Where does the oil price go from here?
Ole Hansen at Saxo Bank said the absence of a peace agreement leaves prices vulnerable to renewed volatility, and that refined fuel supplies have not recovered as crude exports have. UBS's Paul Donovan put fair value in a post-war world at $80 to $85. Brent at $97 is a market pricing a deal it has not seen, with a mined strait and record diesel prices arguing the other way. The Energy Department's loan of 300,000 barrels from the Northeast heating oil reserve this week says which of those worries Washington takes more seriously.
Published in The Outspoken Digest
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