ECB Clears UniCredit to Go Past 30 Percent of Commerzbank, Opening the Way to Control by Year-End
The European Central Bank lifted the ceiling on UniCredit's holding in its German rival, but Commerzbank still opposes the bid, Berlin wants guarantees and three approvals remain.
Saturday, October 17, 2026/2 min read
UniCredit has cleared its biggest regulatory hurdle in the pursuit of Commerzbank. The European Central Bank has allowed the Italian lender to exceed the 30 percent threshold in the German bank and keep buying without an upper limit, UniCredit said on Thursday, according to Euronews.
UniCredit called the decision an important milestone. It expects the remaining regulatory steps and offer conditions to be completed around the end of the year, at which point it expects to hold about 50 percent of Commerzbank's voting rights and be able to take control.
How much of Commerzbank does UniCredit own?
A hostile exchange offer that closed in July lifted UniCredit's economic stake to about 48 percent. Brussels Signal put the figures at 47.6 percent of share capital, equal to 49.7 percent of exercisable voting rights once treasury shares are excluded, after shareholders tendered 17.6 percent of Commerzbank's capital. UniCredit first bought into the bank in September 2024.
Euronews valued Commerzbank at about 35 billion euros, while Brussels Signal described UniCredit's offer as worth roughly 45 billion euros. UniCredit argues that a merger would strengthen Europe's fragmented banking sector and help it compete with larger US rivals, a case the German side has so far resisted.
What does Commerzbank say, and what does Berlin want?
Commerzbank's management still opposes the takeover. Chief executive Bettina Orlopp has argued the bank should stay independent and pursue its own strategy, and the bank cut thousands of jobs and raised its financial targets to win shareholders over, Euronews reported. In late July she called for constructive talks with UniCredit.
The German government, which kept a stake from the 2009 bailout, has criticised the move and sought assurances on the Frankfurt headquarters, jobs and lending to German businesses. Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil met UniCredit chief executive Andrea Orcel last month; he said it is of paramount importance that Commerzbank keeps financing the German economy.
The state is a complication. Brussels Signal said Berlin holds just over 13 percent of Commerzbank and two supervisory board seats, a legacy of the 2009 bailout, and that UniCredit says a change of control could alter that arrangement.
What approvals are still missing?
ECB clearance is not the finish line. Brussels Signal said the European Commission's competition ruling is due by 16 November, and the US Federal Reserve and Poland's financial regulator, which oversees Commerzbank's listed Polish unit mBank, must also sign off.
UniCredit plans a profit-boosting strategy from January and says a full merger would not come until 2029 or 2030, though it has threatened a shareholder vote to replace the supervisory board and management before the next annual meeting. The next few weeks will show whether Berlin and Frankfurt can agree terms before Rome takes the wheel.
Published in The Outspoken Digest
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