Gold Falls 2.8% to $4,021 After Hot CPI, Then Steadies Near $4,042, as Silver Slips Back to $52.37

Edward Meir of Marex called the data "a bit of a short-term negative for gold", while Standard Chartered noted that the metal still trades above the critical $4,000 mark.

What is holding gold and silver up?

Three things. First, the Wednesday bounce itself: Investing.com put the Dollar Index at 102.27, barely changed on the day, so the dollar spike after the CPI release has not extended. Second, central banks. FXEmpire, citing industry data, said official buyers took 321 tonnes in the third quarter, up 42 percent from a year earlier, and that China has now added gold for 24 months running. Third, oil: the sharp drop in crude since last week, which we cover separately, takes some heat out of the inflation story that is pressuring bullion.

Silver has been the more volatile of the two. FXEmpire noted it dipped below $50 to a 2026 low near $49 before rebounding above $52. With gold at $4,041.67 and silver at $52.37, the gold-silver ratio is about 77.

Where are gold and silver heading next?

FXEmpire's chart analyst, Arslan Ali, flagged support for gold at $4,088 and then $4,051, with resistance at $4,147. That was written before the CPI drop, so gold now trades under his first support line. For silver he marked $51.27 as support and $53.42 as resistance. Those are one analyst's technical levels, not forecasts.

The decisive date is the Fed meeting on 8 and 9 December, but before that the producer price index arrives on Friday, and every Fed speaker between now and then can move the rate-hike odds. If December becomes a half-point hike, the pressure on bullion is likely to resume. If oil keeps falling and the dollar stalls, the central-bank bid may keep gold above $4,000.