Gold Jumps 1.6% to $4,130 and Brent Slips Toward $97 as Trump Says New Iran Strikes Are Unlikely
Cheaper crude, a softer dollar and a gentler line on Iran gave bullion a lift in early Asian trade, but analysts say Tuesday's inflation print decides whether the $4,000 floor holds.
Monday, November 9, 2026/2 min read
Gold started the week with a rally nobody had priced in on Friday. Spot gold rose about 1.6 percent to $4,129.69 an ounce in early Asian trading on Monday, and silver gained 2.8 percent to $53.31, Discovery Alert reported. These were live prices from the early session, not closing levels.
The odd part is what gold did it against. Traders still see roughly a 77 to 80 percent chance that the Federal Reserve raises rates in December, which is normally poison for a metal that pays no interest. This time the push came from somewhere else: cheaper oil, a softer US tone on Iran and a modestly weaker dollar.
Why is gold rising on Monday?
With the dollar easing, bullion became cheaper for buyers abroad, and lower oil took a little heat out of the inflation story. Tim Waterer of KCM Trade said the softer line on Iran restrains crude and eases price pressure. InvestingLive had gold up about 1.3 percent near $4,130 in its Asia wrap, and noted that Goldman Sachs has cut its forecast to $4,150 for the end of 2026 and $4,800 for 2027, citing the hawkish Fed.
The bounce does not change the setup we described last week, when gold fell through $4,000 and margin calls hit the metals. Waterer and Phillip Streible of Blue Line Futures both warned that a hot consumer-price or producer-price reading could send gold back below $4,000. Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank expects support above that level if the data comes in line or soft.
What is oil doing after Trump's comments on Iran?
Brent crude fell 84 cents to $97.48 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate fell 32 cents to $90.51 early on Monday, CNBC reported, after President Trump said new strikes on Iran are "highly unlikely" to be needed if Tehran signs a strong deal. Brent fell 17 percent last week, its steepest weekly drop since the pandemic began. By later in the Asian session it had recovered to around $98, InvestingLive said, after Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that the talks had not been productive.
That is the pattern of the past week: every hint of diplomacy takes a dollar off the barrel and every report from the Strait of Hormuz puts it back. Both Washington and Tehran have reported attacks on ships in or near the strait. InvestingLive also reported that a suspected Iranian drone strike halted output at Iraq's Khor Mor gas field in Kurdistan. That attribution comes from early reports and has not been confirmed by Tehran.
On the supply side, JPMorgan estimates a global surplus of 1.1 million barrels a day in September that widened to 1.4 million in October. Waterer, though, said the market is still waiting to see whether the midterms have produced a lasting shift in Trump's approach.
What comes next for gold and oil?
The test arrives on Tuesday, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes October consumer prices, followed by producer prices on Friday. Trump is also due to meet Qatar's prime minister on Monday, with Doha acting as the go-between on Iran.
For gold the question is simple: can it hold $4,000 if inflation surprises on the upside? For oil it is whether peace talk or tanker fire gets the next headline. Neither answer will come before Tuesday.
Published in The Outspoken Digest
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