Gold Drops 3% to $3,890 and Its Lowest Since October 2025 as Fed Hike Bets Harden and the Month's Loss Reaches 5.9%
Bullion lost the $4,000 line in London and kept sliding through the New York morning, pulled down by a hawkish Fed, hot inflation data, oil near $117 and a tech sell-off forcing liquidations.
Friday, October 30, 2026/3 min read
Gold spent Friday morning doing what it has resisted all month: falling hard. Spot bullion was $4,000.54 an ounce at 05:11 GMT, down 0.5 percent, Reuters reported via Business Recorder. By 11:07 GMT it was $3,980.40, down 1 percent and the lowest since 17 July, Reuters said in an update carried by Kitco. By 10:05 a.m. in New York (14:05 GMT) it had reached $3,910.53, down 2.7 percent and the lowest since October 2025, and the December futures contract was $3,919.60, down 2.8 percent, according to Reuters via The Standard.
The Rio Times' market data had gold at $3,890 at 10:50 a.m. ET, down 3.3 percent on the day, after a Thursday close of $4,022. Reuters put the month's loss at 5.9 percent, which would be a second straight monthly decline. In London the LBMA benchmark set at the 10:30 auction was about $3,981, its lowest in dollars since early July, and spot traded as low as $3,937, BullionVault's Adrian Ash wrote.
Why is gold falling today?
The proximate cause is Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed held at 3.75 to 4 percent on a 10 to 2 vote with two dissents in favour of a hike, and Thursday's data did the rest: third-quarter GDP grew at a 3.4 percent annualised pace and the September PCE inflation index rose 0.5 percent on the month and 3.6 percent on the year. Traders put the odds of a December hike at about 75 percent on the CME FedWatch tool early on Friday, Reuters said, and Kitco's morning report cited futures pricing near 83 percent.
Peter Grant of Zaner Metals told Reuters that inflation concerns are keeping several central banks hawkish and that the higher-for-longer theme is weighing on precious metals. Tim Waterer of KCM Trade said the slide was asking serious questions of technical support at $4,000. There is a second, less tidy driver: the tech sell-off that followed Alphabet, Amazon and Intel results. Commerzbank analysts told Reuters the fall in metals looked exaggerated and may reflect forced selling and margin calls triggered by the drop in technology shares.
Oil adds to the pressure. Brent was heading toward $117.15 after renewed tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, Kitco reported, and the 10-year Treasury yield was trading near 5 percent. Higher energy prices keep inflation, and therefore rates, elevated. The dollar fell for a third day, which would normally help gold, and did not.
How far has gold fallen from its peak?
Further than the month suggests. Spot gold hit a record $5,591.61 an ounce on 29 January 2026, Reuters reported that day, so Friday's price is about 30 percent below the top. The autumn leg is more recent: the Rio Times measured the fall at 7 percent from the 19 October open of $4,184, and 7.2 percent from the 19 October high of $4,190. J.P. Morgan's research page puts the fourth-quarter 2025 average at $4,152, which means gold is now trading below where it finished last year.
Investor flows have turned. World Gold Council data reported by Business Line showed physically backed gold ETFs recorded a net outflow of $1.21 billion in the week to 23 October, the first after 13 straight weeks of inflows, with US funds leading the redemptions, Poland Insight reported. Silver fared worse than gold on Friday, falling below $50 for the first time since November 2025; we cover that move separately.
What are analysts watching next?
Chart watchers flagged the July low near $3,941, which gold broke through in the New York morning, and then the $3,900 area. Sucden Financial said on Wednesday it expected a test of about $3,900 before the Fed's December meeting. Not everyone has turned bearish: UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo told Reuters that gold "could climb to $5,000 or higher next year" once rate fears recede, and Commerzbank still expects a recovery.
The next test is Monday's open in Asia, where Chinese buyers stepped in near $4,000 last week, and then the US jobs data next Friday. If the December hike firms further, the market will find out whether $3,900 holds any better than $4,000 did.
Published in The Outspoken Digest
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Outspoken Digest Markets DeskReports for The Outspoken Digest across Business, Crypto.
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