Gold Slips to $3,921 and Silver Falls Back Below $50 on Election Day as Rate-Hike Odds Hold Near 75%
Both metals gave back part of Monday's rebound in Asian trade, with a strong ISM print, a 4.90% ten-year yield and the midterm vote keeping buyers on the sidelines before Friday's payrolls.
Tuesday, November 3, 2026/2 min read
Gold spent election-day morning drifting lower. Spot gold was near $3,921 an ounce on Tuesday, down about $25 or 0.65 percent, giving back part of Monday's rebound from Friday's one-year low of $3,870.27, FinanceFeeds reported at 09:53 Gulf time. Silver was weaker: about $49.70 at 09:11 IST, down roughly 2 percent and back under the $50 line it first lost on Friday, Goodreturns said.
Monday had looked like relief. Gold rose more than 1 percent to above $3,940 and silver more than 2 percent to about $50.25 as Brent crude fell 7.6 percent on US-Iran talk hopes and took some inflation fear with it. Tuesday's fade suggests that was short covering, not new money.
Why is gold falling on election day?
Rates, mostly. Monday's ISM manufacturing index came in at 55.5 against 54.7 expected, with the prices-paid component at 75.2, and that kept the market's odds of a December Federal Reserve hike near 75 percent, FinanceFeeds said. The ten-year Treasury yield was near 4.90 percent. Gold pays nothing, so a central bank that is leaning toward tightening is the heaviest weight on it, and the Fed's 10-2 hold last week, with two members voting to raise, has not been forgotten. Oil's small bounce after reported US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island added a little risk premium but not enough to lift bullion, which has not drawn sustained safe-haven buying through the Hormuz crisis.
COMEX December gold futures were at $3,956.60, down $13 or 0.33 percent, and silver futures at $50.31, down 1.14 percent, in early Asian trade, CNBC-TV18 reported.
What are gold and silver prices in India today?
MCX gold was around Rs 1,38,994 per 10 grams at 10:40 IST, down Rs 1,192 or 0.85 percent, after an intraday low of Rs 1,38,800, and MCX silver was near Rs 1,79,273 a kilogram, down Rs 4,506 or 2.5 percent, Goodreturns' live feed showed. Business Today put benchmark 24-carat gold at Rs 1,39,420 per 10 grams and silver at Rs 1,80,510 a kilogram, with Delhi's 24-carat rate at Rs 1,38,960 and Chennai's at Rs 1,40,670. Gold has shed Rs 7,300 since 30 September and silver about Rs 46,000, which is the dip jewellers are counting on with Dhanteras and Diwali days away; we looked at that buying window from Dubai on Friday.
What should bullion traders watch this week?
FinanceFeeds marks support at $3,885 to $3,904 and then $3,829 to $3,849, with resistance at $3,971 to $3,982 and $4,074 to $4,083; its bear case is $3,830 and its bull case $4,075. The ordering of events is the point: midterm results and JOLTS job openings today, then October non-farm payrolls on Friday 6 November, which is the number most likely to move the December hike odds in either direction. Until then the base case is sideways, with silver, the more industrial and more leveraged of the two, swinging harder.
If Friday's payrolls are soft, the 75 percent becomes a coin toss and gold has a reason to retest $4,000. If they are firm, Friday's $3,870 low is the level to watch.
Published in The Outspoken Digest
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