A Houthi Missile Was Shot Down Over Riyadh at Dawn, the First Alert There Since July, as Saudi Crude Went Through Hormuz

At dawn on Saturday the air-raid sirens sounded in Riyadh for the first time since the fighting in Yemen intensified in July. Residents near King Khalid International Airport heard at least one explosion and saw a column of black smoke; firefighters put out a blaze on a fuel tank carrying Saudi Aramco's logo at a depot near the airport. The Saudi-led coalition's spokesman, Major General Turki al-Malki, said the Royal Saudi Air Defence Forces had "intercepted and destroyed" a ballistic missile launched by the Houthis at the capital, and that attempts on Bisha, Taif, Farasan island and Yanbu the same morning had been thwarted. Saudi authorities reported no casualties. The Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree said the group had struck "sensitive sites" in Riyadh with cruise and ballistic missiles and drones. Al Jazeera and the Saudi Press Agency carry the coalition statement.

The war in Yemen

The escalation began in early July and is the most intense since the truce of April 2022. Government forces backed by Saudi Arabia are fighting in Marib, Taiz, Lahj, al-Jawf and al-Bayda; they reported thirteen of their soldiers killed in two days and claimed twelve Houthi fighters killed in Marib. The coalition has flown several hundred strikes in the past fortnight, and the Houthis hold Mocha and the Hanish islands on the Red Sea shipping lane, as we reported when they took them. Mohamed al-Bukhaiti, a senior Houthi political figure, told the Associated Press on Sunday that the group could fight on "multiple fronts" if other countries joined the Saudi campaign, and, in the same breath, that it would not attack American vessels. Reuters reported that China has asked Iran to help restrain the Houthis after an appeal from Riyadh.

The oil is moving anyway

The East-West pipeline is still shut and Aramco has told European customers it will not supply them in October. But Reuters' shipping data, carried by RTE, shows the kingdom has swung its exports back to the Gulf coast: Saudi crude through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 2.9 million barrels a day over the six days to Monday, against 700,000 a day in August. That is possible because the strait, closed by Iranian decree to all but approved traffic, is in practice letting Saudi tankers through under the American escort arrangement that Central Command has been expanding since the summer. It is the single largest reason Brent fell below 102 dollars on Monday, and it means the pipeline outage has cost Saudi Arabia far less than the first week's estimates suggested.

New York

The UN General Assembly's high-level week opens on Tuesday and the war will be its subject. Trump said at the weekend that Iran faces three outcomes, "military destruction, economic isolation, or a deal", and that he would be open to meeting President Masoud Pezeshkian in New York. Tehran has not said yes. Its military's central command said on Sunday that it had information a new American attack was being prepared and that any strike would be answered against US bases; Mohsen Rezaei's line from last week, no talks until Iran's conditions are met, stands. A US-convened meeting on Tuesday brings together Gulf, Iraqi, Jordanian and Egyptian officials, and the postponed Oman-hosted meeting between Iran and the Gulf states, which Sergei Lavrov promised would reconvene "in the near future", still has no date. France, separately, is summoning Iran's ambassador over the court-ordered closure of the French language centre in Tehran. Xi Jinping arrives in Washington on Wednesday for a state visit, eight days after his foreign minister received Abbas Araghchi in Beijing. If there is a week in which the war could turn toward a settlement, it is this one; if there is a city in which the Houthis have just demonstrated they can reach, it is the one Saudi Arabia's crown prince flies out of to attend.