Lapid Says He Does Not Trust Netanyahu Not to Strike Iran Before Israel's 27 October Election
The opposition leader says no intelligence justifies an attack that would disrupt the vote, as two polls show neither bloc near the 61 seats needed and Eisenkot's new party leading Likud.
Sunday, October 18, 2026/2 min read
Nine days before Israelis vote, the opposition leader has put a delicate accusation on the table. Yair Lapid says he does not trust Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to refrain from an Iran strike that could disrupt the election, and that nothing in the intelligence he has seen would justify one.
Lapid, speaking to Channel 12, said Netanyahu cannot be trusted on security matters, according to the Times of Israel's live blog. He said he trusts the army and its chief of staff, and knows the most sensitive intelligence. The election is on 27 October.
What exactly did Lapid say?
Lapid was careful to say he is not against attacking Iran. His objection is to timing: he told the interviewer he sees no justification for blocking or delaying the vote. Asked about the chance of Donald Trump endorsing a candidate, he said Israel is asking the US president not to interfere, and that neither leader should meddle in the other's elections.
The remark lands in a country at war and in a campaign at once.
Where do the polls stand?
The numbers explain why the rhetoric is hot. A Zman Yisrael poll conducted on 14 and 15 October, with a sample of 500 and a margin of error of 4.4 points, put the Jewish-led opposition bloc at 54 seats and Netanyahu's bloc at 49. Arab parties held 13 and the Reservists list 4. A majority in the 120-seat Knesset needs 61, so neither side gets there.
Gadi Eisenkot's new party, Yashar, led the field with 26 seats, up from 24 the week before. Likud was on 20, Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad on 11 and Yisrael Beytenu on 9. A Channel 13 poll released the day before told a different story, with the pro-Netanyahu bloc on 51 and the opposition on 50, though Yashar still led the parties on 20 seats to Likud's 18.
What matters in the final week?
Two things. The first is the threshold: one small list, People of Israel, polled at 2.8 percent against a 3.25 percent bar, so a miss would waste every vote it wins. The second is the security picture, which is why Lapid raised Iran at all.
That picture is crowded. The same live blog recorded a report that European diplomats were attacked by settlers during an olive harvest visit in the West Bank, and an EU Council statement urging Israel to reverse settlement expansion and warning firms about bidding on tenders for the E1 area. Foreign policy is pressing on a campaign that was meant to be about the government's record.
The same live blog carried a call from Avigdor Liberman for anti-Netanyahu voters to back only one of four opposition parties, an attempt to avoid wasted votes. With a deadlocked Knesset likely on every current poll, coalition arithmetic after 27 October may matter as much as the vote itself.
Published in The Outspoken Digest
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