Election Day Arrives With 53 Million Votes Already Cast and the Senate Rated a Toss-Up

All 435 House seats are up and Republicans defend a razor-thin majority. Fox News' pre-election guide ranges from 240 Democratic seats on a good Democratic night to 212 Republican seats on a good Republican one, with 218 the line for control, and flags Kentucky's 6th District, which closes early and which Trump won by 15 points in 2024, as the first bellwether. Pennsylvania Democrats are targeting four seats, including Brian Fitzpatrick's.

Which governor races and ballot measures matter?

Thirty-six states elect governors tonight. Fox lists Alaska, Nevada, Georgia and Wisconsin as toss-ups, with Florida, Kansas and Texas leaning Republican and Iowa and Ohio, where Vivek Ramaswamy faces Amy Acton, leaning Democratic despite being Republican-held, according to the Fox News guide. Greg Abbott seeks another term in Texas against Gina Hinojosa, and Josh Shapiro seeks re-election in Pennsylvania.

There are 145 statewide ballot measures. Eleven states vote on voter ID or non-citizen voting, California's Proposition 40 proposes a one-time 5 percent tax on billionaires, Missouri votes on repealing abortion rights, Idaho on overturning its abortion ban, and Virginia and Nevada on writing abortion rights into their constitutions.

When do polls close and what else is in play?

The first polls close at 18:00 ET in the eastern parts of Indiana and Kentucky. Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia follow at 19:00, North Carolina and Ohio at 19:30, and the big 20:00 group takes in Pennsylvania, Maine, Michigan's eastern zone and most of Texas. New York, Arizona, Wisconsin and Iowa close at 21:00, California and Washington at 23:00, and the last Alaskan polls at 01:00 ET on Wednesday, per 270toWin. North Carolina mail ballots must reach county offices by 19:30 tonight or be rejected, whatever the postmark.

The weather and the courts are part of the day too. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in seven Florida counties after flooding forced polling places to move, severe storms were forecast for parts of Texas and Kansas, and the Justice Department said it would deploy about 1,000 federal monitors, against 289 in 2022, NBC reported. On Monday evening the Supreme Court rejected the administration's request to set aside up to 20,000 California mail ballots, the case we followed last week.

Early totals say who showed up, not how they voted. Analysts in North Carolina expect Republicans, who vote in person on the day in higher proportions, to narrow the early Democratic lead. The night will tell, and in some states the count will run into the week.