Midterm Eve: A Record 54 Million Have Voted Early as Trump Speaks at the Lincoln Memorial and Democrats Rally
On the last day before Americans pick a new Congress, the early vote has passed 2022's total, the president spoke at the Lincoln Memorial and Senate hopefuls made their closing cases.
Monday, November 2, 2026/3 min read
By the time the polls open on Tuesday, more Americans will have voted in these midterms than voted early in all of 2022. A record 54 million people had already cast ballots before election day, AFP reported on Monday, against 46 million early votes four years ago. A University of Florida analysis on Sunday morning put the count at 53.14 million out of about 210 million registered voters, 29 million in person and 23 million by mail, Al Jazeera reported. A week ago the number was 34 million, as we noted in our one-week-out report.
The state numbers are the ones campaigns are staring at. Texas has passed 7 million early votes, more than 1.5 million above its 2022 midterm total. South Carolina's early vote is up 83 percent on the same point in 2022, Maine's 44 percent, Kansas's 34 percent and Michigan's 32 percent, according to the Associated Press figures Al Jazeera cited. By registration, more than 11 million Democrats had voted early against about 8 million Republicans, though registration is not a vote.
What did Trump say on the last day?
President Donald Trump ended a 28-rally blitz in Salina, Kansas, and then gave his final pre-election speech at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington, where he spent much of his time on the pool's renovation, AFP reported. He called Tuesday the most important midterm of our lifetime. He also acknowledged, at the Reflecting Pool, that the president's party historically "doesn't win the midterms," NBC News reported, while saying his side had given it a very strong shot. Asked whether he was considering another strike on Iran, he shook his head and said no.
There were no in-person rallies on Monday; the White House said Trump was holding tele-rallies for candidates instead. Vice President JD Vance took the road, with stops in Ohio and in Rome, New York, where he campaigned for Republican House nominee Anthony Constantino. NBC's most recent poll has Trump's approval at 40 percent.
Where were the Democrats?
In the states where the Senate will be decided. James Talarico held his closing rally in Texas, Adam Hamilton in Kansas, Troy Jackson in Maine and Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, where El-Sayed said he had raised more than $2.4 million in a single day and where Rep. Haley Stevens's Sunday endorsement of Republican Mike Rogers was still the story. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Democrats must take back both chambers and that the caucus would discuss Stevens's status after the election, NBC reported. Senator Raphael Warnock told CNN the party's mood was "nauseously optimistic."
What is at stake on Tuesday?
Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats for control, which means winning at least two states Trump carried by double digits two years ago; Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Alaska and Michigan are the races NBC lists as live, and it calls the Senate battle a genuine toss-up. In the House, Democrats aim to retake the majority. Decision Desk HQ's final pre-election projection, reported by AFP, has Democrats taking the Senate 52-48 and the House 241-194, and the final New York Times/Siena poll had Democratic candidates ahead in all seven of the most competitive Senate seats, five of them within the margin of error. Florida and Ohio have tight governor's races.
Two court fights frame the count itself. A federal judge dismissed a Justice Department suit seeking to block certification of Alaska's result if Senator Dan Sullivan narrowly loses, and Trump has asked the Supreme Court to temporarily stop California counting mail ballots from more than 20,000 voters federal officials allege are non-citizens, AFP reported. Spending has been enormous: AFP put advertising at about $11 billion, Trump's own outlay at more than $277 million, mostly through MAGA Inc., and Elon Musk's contributions at nearly half a billion dollars.
Polls open on Tuesday morning. The early vote tells us who showed up, not how they voted; the first real answers arrive after the eastern states close on Tuesday night, and Alaska, as ever, will take its time.
Published in The Outspoken Digest
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