US Crude Stocks Jump 4.66 Million Barrels in the EIA's Delayed Report, Well Above Forecasts, as WTI Trades Near $86

It is smaller than the American Petroleum Institute's estimate. The API said on Tuesday that crude stocks rose 9.0 million barrels in the same week, with distillates up 1.5 million, gasoline up 4,000 barrels and Cushing up 182,000, OilPrice.com reported, so the official figure came in roughly half of the industry estimate. The gasoline, distillate and Cushing figures from the EIA itself were not in the sources reviewed.

Where were Brent and WTI before the report?

Wednesday's settlements were $92.76 for Brent and $86.53 for WTI, as we reported in our morning oil report. On Thursday, CNBC reported at 8:24 am Eastern that Brent was up 1.1 percent at $93.73 and WTI up 0.3 percent at $86.76, after President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social: "We don't need a deal with Iran." Other reports that day had Brent near $91.7 and WTI near $85.6, according to Discovery Alert, so the benchmarks have been swinging by more than a dollar either side of Wednesday's close.

Why are traders still nervous about Iran?

John Kilduff of Again Capital told CNBC the market may have moved too fast to price in an end to hostilities, and that renewed doubt about a deal could raise the oil security premium. He added that Trump's claim of control over the Strait of Hormuz could prompt more Iranian attacks on shipping. Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates said neither side's negotiating position appears to have changed.

CNBC noted that WTI is down 16 percent and Brent 20 percent in November. A larger-than-forecast stock build gives bears a second argument, supply, alongside the diplomatic one. The first clue to how oil absorbs it will be the afternoon's settlement.