Saudi Arabia Stopped Loading Oil at Yanbu, a Houthi Drone Was Shot Down South of Mecca, and Four Ships Crossed Hormuz

The pipeline outage we reported on Monday has now reached the tankers. Reuters' shipping sources, carried by EnergyNow and OilPrice, say Saudi Aramco has suspended crude loadings at Yanbu and cancelled some late-September cargoes bound for Europe. No Saudi crude has sailed from the Red Sea port since 11 September, the day the East-West line was shut after drones from Iraq hit its pumping stations. The American energy secretary, Chris Wright, told CNBC the line would restart "in days"; Reuters' sources still say five to six weeks, with partial pumping possible sooner. Between those two estimates lies most of the kingdom's export capacity. Tankers loaded 22 million barrels at Ras Tanura and Juaymah in the Gulf in the week to 13 September, against six or seven million a week before, according to Vortexa, but that oil still has to leave through a strait where, on Tuesday, Kpler counted four commodity vessels in total, two in and two out, none carrying crude or gas. The ten-day average had been eighteen.

The drone over the Hejaz

At ten to seven on Tuesday evening the Saudi-led coalition said its air defences had destroyed a Houthi drone "south of the city of Makkah al-Mukarramah". Its spokesman, Major General Turki al-Malki, called it "a shameful act" and "an attempt to terrorize" pilgrims, and said the security of the Two Holy Mosques was "a red line". It is the first attempt on Mecca since a ballistic missile in July 2017. The Houthis denied it outright; their spokesman Yahya Saree claimed instead to have shot down a Saudi F-15 over Marib with a locally built missile, a claim for which Reuters found no Saudi confirmation. The coalition confirmed thirteen civilians wounded and seven houses damaged at Khamis Mushait, Abha and Taif on Monday. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met Admiral Brad Cooper of Central Command in Jeddah, then flew to Cairo, where Egypt declared the security of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf "an integral part of Egypt's national security". Qatar warned that closing Bab al-Mandeb would be "catastrophic for the entire world".

Central Command breaks its silence

After six days without a statement, Central Command issued three. It has now redirected 103 commercial vessels. It said the IRGC's story that the tanker El Gaia hit a mine was false: Iran hit her with a missile in August and a drone at the weekend while she lay disabled off Oman, and a regional partner is towing her. Oman's maritime centre says 23 of her crew were evacuated and two are missing. And its spokesman, Captain Tim Hawkins, confirmed that "Iranian small boats recently attempted to take possession of a U.S. unmanned surface vessel, but they were unsuccessful after CENTCOM forcefully responded". The Associated Press reported two small boats destroyed off Hormozgan; Axios' officials said an American drone fired two missiles on Monday and most of those aboard were killed. Iran's deputy governor of Hormozgan spoke of missing fishermen. The IRGC, for its part, claimed three MQ-1 drones shot down in 24 hours, one of them "under the control of Iran's integrated air defense network", which would be the first Iranian surface-to-air engagement since the war resumed. Central Command has neither confirmed nor denied it.

Diplomacy, of a kind

The Salalah meeting postponed on Saturday has a new promise if not a date. Sergei Lavrov said it was put off "for several days" and would convene "in one of the cities of the Sultanate of Oman in the near future", with Iraq now attending. Marco Rubio telephoned Oman's foreign minister to acknowledge "Oman's important role in de-escalation" and to condemn "recent Iranian attacks on commercial ships". Abbas Araghchi arrived in Beijing, eight days before Xi Jinping's visit to Washington, saying Iran "has already agreed with Oman on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz". Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, said the opposite in five words: "No talks until Iran's conditions are met." Wang Yi urged both sides back to the Islamabad memorandum. In Tehran, a hardline deputy's motion to declare President Pezeshkian incompetent failed after the speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and most of the chamber opposed it; one member called it a coup plot.

The market

Brent settled at 108.75 dollars on Tuesday, up 3.07 and the highest close in nearly four months, and traded to about 109.25 intraday. Dated Brent went through 130 for the first time since April, Shanghai's crude contract set a record at 138, and American diesel futures settled at a record. Early on Wednesday the price eased below 108 after the American Petroleum Institute reported a 7.14 million barrel build in US crude stocks, a number the Fed would have had in front of it. The coalition's Muwaffaq Salti tally stands where it did: no Iranian missile at a host state for seven days, the longest pause since 28 August. What has changed is where the war is being fought: at sea, in Yemen, and over the Hejaz.